Measuring ROI & Other Questions, Answered
So many of you have been asking great questions about strategic foresight - from measuring its real value to fitting it into your already-packed days. Here are answers to the three questions we get asked the most...
What value does strategic foresight add? How do you measure the ROI of strategic foresight?
Ok, this is a two for one here, and it’s one of the most challenging questions for leaders to answer. We find that a concrete example illustrates the potential value: Consider Blockbuster's journey from an $8.4 billion market value to bankruptcy. They missed how shifting consumer behaviors and technology trends would shape the future, while Netflix (which they could have acquired for ~$50 million) reached a market cap of $450+ billion by the end of 2024 and continues to shape entertainment's future.
When calculating your own potential ROI, ask yourself what the value would be of:
Identifying one major market shift before your competitors
Avoiding one significant strategic misstep in the next 3-5 years
Building a team capable of scanning for and analyzing emerging opportunities and threats
Now, measure that against your annual revenue and strategic investment budget. The numbers might surprise you!
We have limited resources and timing. Does every foresight effort require in-depth scenario planning?
Absolutely not! While in-depth scenario planning exercises are incredibly powerful, they're designed as deeper, periodic explorations. Several effective, less resource-intensive tools can help you consider future possibilities, evaluate risks, and identify opportunities:
Horizon Scanning: This is non-negotiable in Strategic Foresight. Building a practice of noticing the changes and shifts in the world around you helps you to see patterns where others see noise
The Futures Triangle: Examine the push of the present, the pull of the future, and the weight of the past to understand what's influencing a desired future
The Futures Wheel: Map out potential consequences and ripple effects of a new or shifting strategy, change or event
How can we make foresight a more regular part of our culture and day-to-day thinking?
When first starting to integrate foresight, don’t create more workflows or meetings, weave foresight into what you already have! Try one (or all) of these practical approaches:
Add time for signal & trend discussion to existing meetings where team members share one interesting developments they've noticed
Include key stakeholder personas in your discussions and explore what challenges the personas might face in different scenarios or outcomes
When considering a change in strategy, make it a standard practice to take 20 minutes to analyze the ripple effects of the change using a futures wheel
And remember, cultivating a future-ready mindset is like developing any muscle - consistent small exercises build strength over time!