Foresight Tools: The Futures Wheel

Thinking through the ripple effects of a change before they happen could be the difference between a strategic win and a headache. That's what makes the Futures Wheel tool so useful.

What is a Futures Wheel?

The Futures Wheel is a visual brainstorming method developed by Jerome Glenn in the 1970s. It's a simple and powerful tool that helps you consider the potential impacts of a strategy, change or event. Starting with a central change and branching out to show primary, secondary, and tertiary effects, you create a "map" of future possibilities.

In our diagram, each colored circle represents a timeline of impacts:

1. Yellow = Primary impacts, immediate to 2 year consequences

2. Green = Secondary impacts, next wave effects emerging from primary impacts in 3-5 years

3. Blue = Tertiary impacts, longer-term shifts resulting from secondary changes  

The Futures Wheel in Action

Imagine you're considering shifting to a 4-day workweek. Your Futures Wheel might look like this:

Primary impacts:

1. Reduced office operating costs 

2. Scheduling challenges with clients

3. New recruitment advantage increases candidate pool

Secondary impacts:

1. Increased productivity with investment in systems improvements 

2. Innovation in delivery models combine automated systems with human expertise

3. New, extended, onboarding strategies attracts aligned employees 

Third level impacts:

1. Increased innovation as team brings fresh perspectives

2. Business develops unique expertise in human and AI system collaboration 

3. Cultural shift toward valuing outcomes over hours worked

Try It Yourself

Start by identifying a question or decision you're facing. Examples could include: “introduction of ABC service”, “use virtual reality as the primary meeting environment for professional services”, “implement a one month sabbatical”, etc.

Now consider the impacts of the strategy, change, or event:

1. Ask yourself what the immediate impacts would be if that occurred? Add each to the yellow circle.

2. What shifts or changes would those impacts lead to? Note them in the green circle.

3. And finally, what might those second level impacts result in? Add these to the blue circle.

Look for surprising connections, risks or opportunities in the patterns. What unexpected consequences might actually create new paths forward?

Pro tip: aim for a balance of both negative and positive impacts as you progress through the levels.